February 2016

Last stop before Super Tuesday. What can the rest of the field do now?

All agree to drop in favor of Cruz?

All agree to drop in favor of Rubio?

Even if they do, it won’t help the GOPe much.



It is crunch time for his opponents. To have a chance, they need to reduce it to a two man race immediately. Here’s the math. Trump has 35% nationally. He only needs 25% of the 65% that his opponents garner.

If everyone but Rubio drops out, do you believe Trump can’t get 25% of the rest? Same with Cruz.

Super Tuesday is coming up. About 20% of the delegates are up for grabs in winner-takes-all or winner-takes-most primaries. If the field stays as it is now, Trump could win 80% of them. Then he’ll need even less of that 65% slice to win.

The only chance for Rubio or Cruz is for one or the other to drop before Super Tuesday.

You would expect the Trump campaign to hire a top-of-the-line media specialist as its campaign spokesman. Instead, Trump has put his trust in Katrina Pierson. She was born to a white mother and a black father, and grew up with her mother in poverty. Wikipedia has a long entry on her.

My guess is Trump recognized her as a fighter. He does have a soft spot for women who fight.

Neo-neocon writes:

Trump is the one candidate with nearly unlimited resources to buy others—their support, their silence, their cooperation, their acquiescence for fear of being lied about and smeared

In the grand scheme of billionaires, Trump is small potatoes.

#1, Bill Gates is a big fan of Common Core
#2, Warren Buffet is a big fan of planned parenthood and liberal
#5, the Koch Brothers, are libertarians
#7, Mark Zuckerberg is an Open Borders Obama supporter who devoted vast resources to Obama’s IT systems to track and motivate voters
#8, Michael Bloomberg is a Democrat who ran as Republican to buy the office of NY mayor
#10, Larry Page is an Obama supporter who also devoted vast resources to Obama’s IT effort systems to track and motivate voters
#11, Sergey Brin – See #10.
#15, Sheldon Adelson supports Republicans, but is holding his hand close to his chest.

Trump comes in at #121. His measly $4.5 billion is dwarfed by the sums that Sheldon Adelson ($26 billion) and the Koch Brothers ($41 billion) could spend on the GOP side.

The one thing Trump supporters say is that he can’t be bought. However, there are 120 billionaires out there who are richer than Trump and can spend what it takes via Super PACs, to support their chosen candidate. They can’t buy Trump but they can buy a Cruz or Rubio or Bush.

It was support from the likes of Zuckerberg, Brin and Page that helped Obama beat Romney. Silicon valley leftists from Google and FB helped build the software that powered Obama’s campaign and get-out-the-vote effort.

The Romney campaign had nothing to match it. Its Project Orca was a disaster. So much for Romney’s management expertise; he got suckered by GOP campaign consultants who sold him a pig-in-a-poke. Project Orca never got tested under the load of a simulated election. Trump’s management style is simple: hire the best and watch them closely.

Trump has been called the “Blue Collar Billionaire”. He seems to have an affinity with people who build things with their own hands. I built computer software architectures in my professional life, and I know what it takes to create something out of thousands of different parts under intense time constraints. My structures were the vehicles for managing health care benefits, pension funds, payrolls, investments and system interfaces. Unlike Trump, I didn’t have the skills stack to translate that into a business I owned.

So, you can kvetch and whine about how nasty Mr. Trump may be, but us vulgarians recognize and value someone who has concrete accomplishments instead of broken campaign promises.

Trump’s plans for the presidency are outlined on his web-site and fleshed out in his book, “Crippled America”. I’ve read both and I don’t see any “self-delusions of grandeur” beyond his belief that he can implement what he proposes. Since he has a track-record of doing just that in the complex world of real-estate in New York and beyond, I give him some credibility. He says he will make Mexico pay for the wall. Remittances from Mexicans in the US back to Mexico exceed Mexico’s Oil revenue. Don’t you think there is some leverage there? Or in renegotiating NAFTA? Or modifying the tax code to encourage Ford and Nabisco to stay in the US?

Mexico has huge incentives to export their poverty, criminals and drugs to the US. Isn’t it time to eliminate those incentives? Who started that conversation and who continues to hammer it? A tin-pot dictator would open the borders, arm the drug cartels and reduce the penalties for selling heroin. Guess who did all those things?

He hasn’t held office but he has interacted with politicians for all of his professional life. He described exactly what Peter Schweizer exposes in his book Extortion. Trump freely disclosed that he contributed to Nancy Pelosi. A couple of years later, when he had problems with environmental impact statements in California, he called Pelosi. He said, “If I hadn’t donated she wouldn’t even have taken my call.” He knows how the game is played and he has been exposing it on the campaign trail.

The Trump supporters I know include a retired surgeon and his nurse wife, a Shakespeare scholar, a builder’s laborer active in GOP and Tea Party circles, a single mother and nurse, a lawyer, a veterinary physician and a retired grade school principal. Not exactly the great unwashed.

What drives them towards Trump?

1. Utter frustration with elected GOP politicians for their failure to stop Obama from implementing his radical agenda, despite huge victories in the last three election cycles.

2. A sense that the country they grew up in is disappearing fast, as illegals and Muslims pour in at unprecedented rates. “Adios America”, as Coulter wrote.

3. The sure knowledge that everything Big Government touches only benefits special interests.

4. Recognition that debts must eventually be repaid yet the nation’s debt has almost doubled under Obama, with nary a whimper from the GOP.

You get the drift. Supporters of other candidates have similar concerns.

A rude, arrogant, narcissistic billionaire from New York would seem to be an unlikely choice for voters with these concerns. And he was, when the campaign started. But then he railed against the illegals flooding in across the border, claimed he would build a wall, that Mexico would pay for it, and illegals would be deported. He shattered the PC prohibitions against even mentioning illegal immigration as an election issue. We know, every election cycle, GOP politicians say they will build a fence and secure the border, but they never do it. Heck, in the omnibus bill, they didn’t even fund their fence. So Trump calls the illegals murderers and rapists and drug dealers, but maybe some of them are good. All Hell breaks loose. Trump doubles down. That’s when people started to take Trump seriously. He broke down the Berlin wall of political correctness to talk about an issue that concerned ordinary Americans. Meanwhile, Cruz and Rubio were changing their positions on immigration almost daily.

Trump did it again when he called for a temporary halt to Muslim immigration. All Hell breaks loose. Trump doubles down.

When almost every manufactured good that you buy is labelled “Made in China” or Japan or Mexico, and our landscape is covered in boarded up factories, then talking about “fair trade” and making better deals sounds good. My majors were economics and mathematics, so I know the theory behind free trade and the benefits of eliminating trade barriers. But that is not how the world works. China steals American trade secrets, places huge burdens on American exporters (Boeing, you must build planes in China if you want to sell to us), and devalues its currency to its advantage.

It is rude, crude stuff but Trump has done us the courtesy of providing detail about his policies in Crippled America and on his website. That’s how I found out what he meant by a “good” immigrant.

End welfare abuse. Applicants for entry to the United States should be required to certify that they can pay for their own housing, healthcare and other needs before coming to the U.S.

If Trump fizzles out, we’ll be back to the tired old cycle of voting for a professional politician who will say conservative things on the stump but vote progressive when elected. In that case, why bother? Let’s just stay home and give it to Hillary or Bernie. At least they won’t betray us.

Logistics in a presidential campaign is controlling the media narrative. That’s what the Obama campaign was able to do with a complicit media. Trump has done the same thing by exploiting his celebrity status and by stirring up controversy whenever media attention flags. He has made the media complicit in his campaign, much against its will, but ratings are ratings. No one saw it coming when Trump entered the race. Now it looks like a freight train at full speed.

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