The correct model to look at is 2010. In the lead-up to that election, Tea Parties organized large demonstrations and captured media attention. The wave of Tea Party enthusiasm swept the GOP to major gains. Enthusiasm is probably the wrong word. The forces driving the Tea Party were disgust at Government profligacy, fear about the damage Obama & co. were doing to the country, and anger at Obamacare.

Since then, the media believes the Tea Party has faded away. Good. The Tea Party has actually switched track from demonstrating to organizing and infiltrating the GOP grass roots. None of the motivating forces have changed; if anything, the intensity is higher. These folk are seething; they see this as a tipping point election and the last chance to save America. They will vote in droves.

What has the other side got? The passion that gave Obama victory in 2008 has been replaced by a grim reality. They will not vote for an evil Republican but they will stay home in droves.

The MSM sense the malaise and are doing all they can to prop up Obama. Their polls are based on 2008 turn-out models, instead of 2010. They still over sample Democrats and under sample Republicans and use registered voters instead of likely voters. Despite that, it is neck and neck in the polls. In reality it isn’t even close.