In 2007, the Feds took in $2.5 trillion in tax revenues. 45% of that came from Federal Personal Income Tax. That is about $1.125 trillion. If we assume that these revenues will grow by 5% p.a. over the next 12 years (from 2007), then individual tax revenue for 2009 through 2018 will total about $16 trillion.

The off-the shelf price of the stimulus package is a bit under $800 billion. However, the long-term cost is much higher. Instapundit linked to a Heritage foundation report, based on CBO research, that the stimulus package will cost $3.27 trillion dollars over 10 years.

Put the two projections together, and the long-term cost of the stimulus package works out to around 20% of the tax revenues for individuals, based on present personal rates.That government spending has to be paid for somehow. the choices are borrowing, which must be repaid, with interest, or increased taxes, or a combination thereof.

Obama promised 95% of American taxpayers a tax decrease. Let’s be generous and assume he meant no tax increases. The top 5% of tax-payers pay around 60% of Federal Personal Income Tax. These taxpayers could be on the hook for a substantial tax increase, anywhere up to 30% more than they currently pay.

Of course, the Obama administration could look for other sources of revenue. Domestic oil and gas production, anyone?

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